New Report Details Interconnected Illicit Gun Markets in the U.S. and Mexico
Stop U.S. Arms to Mexico releases tracing data on over two million crime guns in One Market, Many Guns: Illicit and Trafficked Firearms in the United States and Mexico, 2021-2026.
Stop U.S. Arms to Mexico today released One Market, Many Guns, a report showing that gun trafficking is not a diffuse problem but is rooted in specific places. The report analyzes trace data with unprecedented details obtained through public records requests, including purchase zip code and time-to-crime. The report finds that the markets for illicit guns in the U.S. and Mexico must be examined together. At least two-thirds of guns recovered at crime scenes in Mexico came from the United States.
The report will be presented in a webinar Monday, November 9 at 12pm Eastern (registration here), and another especially for journalists and researchers on Thursday, November 12 at noon Eastern (registration here). Both will be recorded and have interpretation from English to Spanish.
Key Findings:
- Mexico is the fastest-growing destination of illicit firearms. Traces of guns recovered in Mexico nearly doubled between 2021 and 2025.
- A few places drive the problem. Just 456 zip codes (1.1 percent of the U.S. total) account for 44 percent of guns recovered in Mexico and a quarter of gun traces overall.
- Texas and Arizona supply two-thirds of Mexico traces. Traces from Maricopa County, Arizona, more than quadrupled and account for 36 percent of the overall increase of Mexico gun traces.
- Cartels rely on weapons sold legally in the U.S. but not in Mexico. Since 2024, more than half of short time-to-crime guns recovered in Mexico were 7.62 caliber, typically AK-47-type rifles. Florida-based Century Arms made over a third of these guns, and 92 percent of those were bought in Arizona. 213 Barrett .50 caliber rifles recovered in Mexico were traced to U.S. purchases, more than the number recovered and traced in the U.S. itself.
- Most crime guns stay close to home. Over 70 percent of traced guns were recovered in the state where they were bought, while major corridors run from Arizona and Nevada into California, from Georgia to New York, Indiana to Illinois, and Mississippi to Tennessee.
- State laws track gun flows. States with the weakest laws have nearly five times as many recently purchased crime guns per resident as states with the strongest laws. This is a descriptive pattern, not proof of cause, but it matches two decades of research.
“The enormous U.S. gun supply is feeding violence and crime guns in both countries, and we need to understand the gun markets in the two countries together – and act,” said John Lindsay-Poland, one of the report co-authors.
“The same gun counters that supply crime in Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles are supplying violence in Sonora, Sinaloa, and Chiapas,” added Eugenio Weigend Vargas, the other co-author. “This is one market, and the decisions made in U.S. gun stores and U.S. legislatures are shaping who lives and dies on both sides of the border.”
The complete report is at: stopusarmstomexico.org/one-market-many-guns
The full data may be accessed at: stopusarmstomexico.org/datasets and an interactive map at: stopusarmstomexico.org/many-guns-map
About Stop U.S. Arms to Mexico:
Stop US Arms to Mexico is a project of Global Exchange that seeks to substantially reduce the flow of US firearms to Mexico, including military-style assault weapons, in order to address the growing violence experienced by communities and migrants in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. The project develops tools, capacity, relationships, and expertise to research, analyze and organize advocacy on the US arms trade to Mexico and Central America and on its impacts on state and organized criminal violence. Stop US Arms to Mexico collaborates with Desarmando el Miedo, an alliance of Mexican organizations working to stem gun violence.
Stop US Arms to Mexico is a project of Global Exchange, coordinated by John Lindsay-Poland, and has a representative in Washington, DC, Tania Del Moral.
